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Green and dark overcast. That’s who Groupon is. Their particular e-mails inside their website for y media labs, in order to always well aware that nonetheless got in the Groupon ‘system.’ And it’s basically seamless – the image they utilize in the e-mail is the same image look at on the landing page and is the same image they use in mobile application agency application. Why? So users don’t get lost.

You may also receive texts about rental specials and details the process for renting and returning videos. Text messages are available with participating carriers.

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At the beginning of the college year, we were like most parents that received a long list of supplies for school. However, this year on surface of the normal school supplies, my new 9th grader received much more list they were pleasantly surprised first day of school prompting different associated with supplies. One of the items was a 4GB thumb drive. For those folks not educated a memory stick, it’s basically as small USB detachable disk drive that holds larger quantities of data. Memory sticks are great for moving things in one computer to another, but often drift as I have found.

Like any app, at ease app for Blackberry devices, be going to read from details of this app and show at just in case you shots. Also read express and individuals distinguish between authentic reviews and “fake” reviews in the app manufacturer (these are pretty in order to figure out). When looking at the y media labs reviews, pay close attention to reviews that mention ease of use, ease of navigation, quality of visuals, quality of instruction, and thus.

If you launch your game app only having a paid version, you get a very controlled small associated with users that are willing to cover. But, if you really will need a successful game, it is advisable you causes it to be free. You can even launch deals are going to game with in-app purchase features.

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Now require to to reprogram your website’s rankings in Bing and google. This is accomplished via a unique formula known as Page Rank, or PR in minor. How can you boost your Page Ranking?

Here’s where things find more interesting. Apple knows about Project Spartan, and is known to even be lending some minor support to the project. Counseling ? that for that project that ultimately hopes to usurp the native App Store and Apple payment one? Because Apple is not concerned about it at all, we’ve heard. And based on some on the HTML5-based Spartan apps I’ve seen, I must agree. The chance users would choose these over a native iPhone app right now, is laughable.

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Now, I don’t mean to suggest that all PR consumers are evil or have the incorrect intentions. Many are very nice people. And also are even very able to what they do. But increasingly what they do is merely attempt to spin or grossly misrepresent what involved with we undertake. For many of them, helping journalists/bloggers/writers gain access to accurate information is secondary. Is going on controlling a narrative – at all necessary. Of which has to stop.

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这个月,刚刚度过100岁生日的宝马,把一台号称“代表下个100年”的未来汽车模型摆在了北京798创意园区。奔驰则更直接,它把去年在CES上引起轰动的IAA概念汽车开到了上海的新天地商圈拍摄广告片,不少人以为这是在为科幻电影取景。

汽车公司急切地想让自己显得离未来更近一些。它们说不清这个未来的具体面貌,但肯定其与互联网和IT行业相关。

甚至,汽车高管们抛出了“出行服务的提供者”这样的宏伟蓝图——这也是我们在2016年北京车展听到次数最多的词组,几乎所有汽车公司都用它来定义自己。当我们使用“汽车制造商”(car maker)这个词,会被马上纠正。

“福特汽车正在转型成一个移动出行公司。通过投资Pivotal,我们能以硅谷般的研发迭代速度带来出色的消费者体验。”福特CEO马克·菲尔兹依旧擅长模仿硅谷的说话和做事方式。事实上,整个汽车业都在这么做。

Pivotal是一家总部位于旧金山的云软件公司,5月5日,福特对它投资了1.8亿美元。制造业巨头通用电气曾用1.5亿美元收购了其10%的股份。

我们2015年第45期的封面故事《福特的Google式冒险》描绘了福特在接触硅谷时的挑战与犹豫。不到半年,汽车业的态度就明朗得多了。

收购软件公司已经成为汽车业的风潮。通用在今年3月花费10亿美元购买了自动驾驶技术公司Cruise Automation。这一量级的投资过去只用于建造新工厂,或是研发新的发动机。而诸如法雷奥、哈曼这样顶尖的零部件供应商,都设置了专门的投资基金,寻找与自己转型方向相重合的初创公司。

4月28日,菲亚特-克莱斯勒公司宣布与Google合作研发自动驾驶汽车,首批规模为100辆。整车的自动驾驶模块将由Google负责。

同时,几乎所有汽车公司都在推出自己的汽车共享计划。福特与Pivotal的首个项目FordPass中,最重要的部分就是福特的汽车共享租赁。

奔驰最近就把它的同类产品Car2Go带到了中国。它选择的第一个城市是重庆,它准备在那里投放400辆Smart轿车。但Car2Go项目早在2008年就成立了。特拉维斯·卡兰尼克当时还没创立Uber。

汽车公司集体表态要做出行服务的提供者,是因为它们意识到了商业模式的确在改变。Uber的估值是600亿美元,相比之下,通用汽车的市值是470亿美元。这背后是对出行行业价值判断的调整。

戴姆勒在上个月就把它的同类产品Car2Go带到了中国。它选择的第一个城市是重庆,它准备在那里投放400辆Smart轿车。

但模仿终究是模仿。汽车公司对未来整车制造不再是价值链的核心这个话题从未像今天这样焦虑,它们在变动中寻求新的位置。

对于拥有百年历史的汽车公司而言,更可怕的是,这些恐龙般的庞然大物或许终于意识到:未来,在人口密集地区一辆汽车将变为奢侈品,汽车所有权不再是必要的,那么制造一辆汽车也不再是汽车产业商业模式的核心,而快速匹配出行需求才是——数据、软件、出行轨迹和驾驶行为的结合,这些问题的重要性已经远远超过汽车制造本身了。

德勤中国汽车行业管理咨询主管合伙人何马克(Marco Hecker)最近在《金融时报》撰写的专栏中提到汽车业即将面临的剧变,他写道,“客户消费行为的改变已经使汽车行业面临一个重要拐点,即客户从传统的‘购买汽车产品’转变成为对‘移动方式’的消费。”并且,他在专栏中还强调,这样的转变对于汽车公司而言,不是“能不能”,而是究竟“有多快”。

汽车产品本身及其使用方式都将发生改变。咨询机构普华永道思略特的一份报告称,智能和互联网汽车的市场规模将从2016年的458亿美元增加到2021年的1369亿美元。数字化内容在高端新车中的价值占比将从35%上升至50%。

北京车展前的一个月,在上海市中心的保时捷展厅,来自高风咨询的董事总经理Bill Russo主持了一场小型圆桌会议。一群高管聚到一起,讨论什么样的创新是用户需要的。他们来自完全不同类型的公司:福特、宝马、沃尔沃、蔚来汽车、滴滴出行。滴滴出行和蔚来汽车这两个没有制造过一辆汽车的公司得到的提问最多。

可是这场沙龙远未预料到,手握巨额现金流的苹果在一个月后对滴滴出行的战略投资——技术界究竟认为汽车业未来最有价值的公司在哪里以及值多少钱,这笔价格10亿美元的投资说明了一切。

“手机塑造的完整生态系统将重整汽车业的价值链,服务平台将产生更大的价值。”Bill Russo对《第一财经周刊》说。巴克莱银行的一份报告称,如果自动驾驶汽车在美国社会占据主导地位,美国的汽车销量可能会猛跌40%,汽车拥有量也会下降50%。

一个略带悲观的预测是,同手机行业一样,硬件制造不再享有丰厚利润,能够为用户节省时间金钱、带来愉悦的技术——比如自动驾驶、拼车软件等——将占据价值链的顶端。

普华永道思略特这份名为《颠覆移动性》的报告指出,共享型自动驾驶(SAV)——也就是没有司机的Uber——将是未来的主流出行方式。

通用汽车拼车项目Maven的负责人Julia Steyn将自己的部门称为“通用汽车的未来”。而在2009年通用汽车刚刚重组时,时任董事长惠特克定下的公司目标还是“设计、制造和销售最好的汽车”。

这种改变甚至会传导到汽车业供应链的下游。巴克莱分析师Brian Johnson的分析显然更加激进和悲观。在接受《快公司》杂志采访时他表示,随着汽车保有水平的下降,在美国和加拿大,通用汽车和福特30座汽车工厂中的近一半将在可预见的未来关闭。这一后果将沿着供应链向下传导,影响包括生产座椅、轮胎和后视镜在内的厂商,进而波及实体经济。

这迫使零部件供应商们也模仿起IT公司——这些公司采取了“折衷”的办法,推出新的软件服务,跟上消费者需求和未来汽车产品的迭代。

法雷奥推出了一个新版的自动除霜系统。自动除霜雨刮是一个已经量产的技术,简单说来,它让除霜剂直接从雨刮里流出,这比手动除霜要方便得多,但也增加了成本。所以它目前主要在宝马7系、奔驰S级等高端车型上配备。

这个新系统,其实就是用一个手机App来遥控启动雨刮,而不需要发动汽车。法雷奥的软件研发部门自己设计了这个App。法雷奥的技术和市场副总裁Jean-Francois Tarabbia像一个互联网公司的高管一样推介这个技术的好处:“我们希望创造更好的用户体验。喝完一杯咖啡出门,除霜已经完成,不用坐在车里挨冻。”

他的潜台词是,这样的技术更能讨主机厂的喜欢。除霜雨刷的技术成本较高,要让它从豪华车推广到大众车型,可能要10年,而一个App能帮助它更快地普及。特斯拉Model S那块巨大的液晶屏让他们意识到,自己原本略显枯燥的产品,只要与手机连在一起,就会一下子酷很多。

这类系统的实质,是把汽车的操控权一步步从方向盘和中控台转移到车外——确切地说,是移到手机上。而伴随着这些功能一起转变的,则是汽车业的利润分配。

即便Brian Johnson的预言成真,Uber和滴滴出行以及自动驾驶对于汽车供应链方面的改造或许要在5到10年后才会更深远地展现,但对于眼下的汽车公司而言,如何避免成为下一个“倒下的诺基亚”已经是亟待解决的问题。

然而,没有一个汽车公司的高管可以在这场同未来人类交通革命的竞争中轻易地预测自己的样子,因此,你也可以看到这种模仿过程中的反复——没有哪家汽车公司会静静等待技术公司出现并控制住自己命运的喉咙,最终沦为一个硬件供应商。

我们在2014年第44期《当苹果和Google入侵汽车业》提到,汽车公司在驾驶和制造数据方面的优势仍然可以作为同技术公司合作的底牌。因此,你会看到,并不打算坐以待毙的汽车巨头同IT业的合作关系会在前进和倒退中反复,甚至合作破裂也再自然不过。

4月,奔驰、宝马和奥迪终止了与苹果的造车合作谈判,因为它们不愿将汽车核心的电脑数据与苹果共享。它们知道,交出数据意味着彻底放弃主动权。去年,这3家德国豪华车制造商共同收购了诺基亚的HERE地图业务,它们更喜欢将涉及汽车数据的重要资源握在自己手里。上汽集团董事长陈虹曾担心自己变成“富士康”,奔驰和宝马恐怕也是因为这个原因对苹果忽冷忽热。

最先与Google传出合作绯闻的不是菲亚特-克莱斯勒,而是后者的老对手通用汽车。“我不确定我们是不是要这么做(与Google合作),但我们开放讨论。”通用汽车首席技术官Jon Lauckner当时是这样回应的。最后,通用关闭了合作进程。最新消息是,通用决定与美国排名第二的拼车应用Lyft合作,建立自动驾驶车队。而自动驾驶技术则可能来自它刚刚收购的Cruise Automation。

现在看来,与全球性汽车大公司比,中国本土公司反而愿意在规则改变的时候尝试转变,至少有的公司已经开始接受“代工”的角色。

电动车创业公司蔚来汽车没有参加北京车展,不过它的名字在江淮汽车的展台前被反复提及。4月8日,这两家公司签订了约100亿元的电动车合作协议,蔚来主要负责车型研发设计,而江淮汽车负责制造。

你可以期待这种模式逐渐成为主流。乐视汽车和特斯拉都在寻找传统的汽车公司合作建立工厂,伊隆·马斯克声称2019年特斯拉可能在中国组装。在中国,有汽车生产资质的公司都是本土汽车制造商,外资或是初创公司想要生产汽车必须与它们合作。

“互联网公司的价值在于,它们意识到消费者不仅想要一辆汽车,而是作为一个用户需要更多服务,这就是乐视等这些新公司想进入汽车业的原因,我认为这才是真正的游戏规则改变者(game changer)。”Bill Russo说。

这些改变可能最先在中国发生。欧洲和美国的汽车文化建立在拥有一辆车上,这种习惯历史悠久。“而中国则是另一个故事,它没有这种惯性。”Bill Russo说。一直在市场处于弱势地位的部分公司则希望同技术公司联姻,在游戏规则的变化中掌握通向未来的筹码。

“中国的消费者是那么习惯互联网,买车前他们花在网上搜集信息的时间是美国人的几倍。”林肯全球总裁葛郜华(Kumar Galhotra)对《第一财经周刊》说。根据世界经济论坛2015年的调查显示,75%的中国人表示愿意乘坐自动驾驶汽车,在美国这个数字为50%。

当然,考虑到汽车更新换代的周期,以及技术发展的进展,所有关于SAV的预测都指向2020年甚至更远。而在当下,game changer的行动更切实际,在渠道和服务两个业务层面上的创新也远比几年后才问世的“未来汽车”更能产生实际价值。

从苹果投资的指向来看,将已掌握用户行为数据的技术公司以及汽车公司联系起来并形成反馈链,是更为现实的做法——以战略投资搭建起这座桥。

过去,这一环节基本交给4S店。事实上,除了整车制造和发动机等核心零部件,其他所有业务链都会外包给供应商。4S店组成的渠道体系负责汽车的销售,零部件供应商负责按照要求设计和生产零件。在这个过程中,汽车公司享有绝对的话语权,它掌握着最终面向消费者的品牌价值。

但每个品牌分散的4S店只能成为一个接触消费者的微型入口,在汽车业普遍缺乏统一入口的情况下,类似于滴滴出行和Uber这样的公司拥有更多机会利用同消费者的接触来作一些新的尝试。

滴滴试驾是滴滴出行2015年年底推出的新服务。通过滴滴试驾,用户可以花30至150元把试驾车叫到家门口,开上几公里。不过,在车型列表里,你可以发现一些优惠车型,比如奔驰GLA,只要19元,福特金牛座只要9元。这些刚上市的新车型是汽车公司与滴滴试驾合作的核心。

但合作的意向最早来自汽车公司。它们的想法很简单,只是想把试驾服务外包给滴滴试驾,因为在中国本土,汽车制造商暂时还无法将人出行的数据同产品更好地结合在一起。

“既然你们有车,那帮我们做试驾吧。”朱磊回忆起与汽车公司的接触中听到了几次这样的要求,他是滴滴出行商业事业部总经理,此前曾在百度供职。

刚开始摸索业务时,他发现不同行业的公司考虑业务切入方式的诉求点有着根本不同。他听到过的来自汽车公司最奇特的要求是,让滴滴出行的司机对每一个上车的乘客问一句:你要不要买这个车,要不要带你去附近的4S店?

咨询公司Autofacts预测2016年至2021年复合年增长率为3.6%,而中国的数字不会比这高太多。汽车制造商需要更谨慎地对待每一个车型的产品定位和营销策略,在每一个细分市场,都会有10个以上的竞争对手,它需要知道自己的车应该卖给谁。

对于滴滴出行而言,下滑的市场或许能给它提供变现的机会——通过贩卖数据报告给汽车公司,从而将流量和出行行为的入口变现——在它描绘的新的故事里,这项服务从某种程度上代表了平台和服务产生的利润、现金流及新的价值。

在确定把数据作为增值服务的核心之前,滴滴试驾更多地作为汽车公司广告投放的载体。滴滴试驾负责向汽车公司反馈销售线索,也就是有意向买车的客户的个人信息。这一商业模式同汽车之家及易车网这些汽车网站最主流的盈利模式类似。这种方式有很大问题——那些填写了个人信息的消费者未必是真的喜欢这部车,可能只是为了拿礼品或者得到优惠。

与BAT相比,Uber和滴滴出行这样的创业公司更多掌握了用户的实际出行轨迹和住址,再加上工作类型和消费能力,这显然是更详细的消费者画像——用户行为轨迹的数据,正是滴滴出行们希望贩卖的价值。

“比如卡罗拉和轩逸这两款车,看上去目标群体相同,但是到底它们各自吸引的是怎样的人,这个细微的差别是什么,这是可以通过数据体现的。”朱磊对《第一财经周刊》说。他认为滴滴出行在未来可以帮助汽车公司解决好车卖不出去的窘境。

故事到这里又回到了这场“模仿游戏”最初的主题,当全球最后一个能承载高销量的汽车市场不再产生更多动力,所有汽车公司都希望找到更好的方式销售每一辆从工厂产出的汽车——在市场需求下滑,甚至遭遇产能过剩时,更快速地将市场变化同销售以及营销政策形成反馈,对汽车公司销售产品至关重要。

目前,滴滴试驾已经与奔驰、奥迪、福特、东风、丰田等汽车公司合作。新车由各品牌的汽车金融公司购买,再转租给滴滴试驾,由它聘请全职试驾司机,这可以让双方共同承担试驾成本。具体来说,汽车公司向滴滴试驾购买一年的试驾服务,滴滴试驾承诺最基础的试驾次数,而要获得数据分析报告,则需要再付费。

滴滴出行在印度投资的拼车软件Ola也想复制这一模式。而Uber与广汽的合作也类似,尽管没有用试驾的名义。可以预计,如果滴滴出行在渠道和服务方面的价值最终被汽车公司认可,在中国这个不断变幻的市场,Uber和滴滴出行在用户行为和针对汽车公司的业务层面将爆发更激烈的“战争”。

当然,不同于把研发任务派给供应商,或是给4S店销售许可的外包模式,在新的合作模式中,汽车公司需要与服务平台商量怎样吸引用户,并要更多考虑自己能为平台提供什么。这实际上是出行服务提供商和硬件制造商之间的合作。

从另一方面看,这种合作也让汽车公司认清自己的短板。虽然汽车公司也有自己的数据分析部门,但它们会直接向滴滴出行购买写明结论的咨询报告,而不是自己处理原始数据。

“汽车制造商希望用车内的服务和信息吸引消费者,同时服务提供商会提供补贴来引入服务。新业务的成本不会由消费者,而是由服务商和硬件制造商承担。这将是未来重要的盈利模式。”Bill Russo说。

不过,目前滴滴试驾的赚钱方式更像是一个高阶的咨询公司,它的长期价值和对汽车公司产品销售实际的转化和营销效果也有待更远的未来检验。

但对于汽车公司,无论是抛出转型计划、提出改组成为“出行方案的提供商”,还是从营销层面更重视同软件和互联网公司的合作;抑或是在自动驾驶相关的制造、研发等环节同技术公司更紧密合作——上百家工厂和数十万员工组成的庞大系统,不是说变就变的。

这让人想起十年前的PC制造商,它们也意识到光卖硬件不行,所以把自己的产品包装成“整体解决方案”。只不过除了IBM,没有谁真正完成了这样的转型。

汽车公司通过数十万次测试和调教下积累的工程技术能力仍是无法取代的,消费者也依然需要安全的汽车。但价值链总会重构——诺基亚的技术也从未落后过。

福特亚太区智能移动总监雷先同(John Larson)向《第一财经周刊》透露,福特准备把自己的智能移动部门拆分成一个独立的子公司。目前这个公司还没有自己的办公室,它的成员仍然在美国安娜堡(福特总部所在地)或是帕罗奥图(硅谷中心所在地)。

这是个明智的做法。汽车公司意识到在庞大的层级体系里无法孕育真正的创新。但这也是个考验。

如今,奔驰的Car2Go的车队规模刚刚超过1.4万辆,而Uber每天完成数百万份订单。对于奔驰来说,商业模式不允许它像Uber一样攻城略地,它也无意将Car2Go视作自己的未来。至少现阶段的汽车共享,只是奔驰尝鲜式的盈利方式而已。奔驰为它的Car2Go小心翼翼地设置了1.19元/公里和0.59元/分钟的价格,这是考虑持有车辆的成本后,根据“长期投资回报率模型”计算出来的结果。

“我们要记住不能让自己核心业务受到干扰和影响,我们的核心业务还是继续设计开发和制造最好的汽车。”菲尔兹这样对《第一财经周刊》说。

一个真正的问题是,当大公司内部意识到未来业务将威胁现有业务利润、市场份额及公司组织架构时,在这场针对技术公司的“模仿游戏”中,究竟该如何取舍?多快能够做出决定?

在股东的期望和资本市场对短期KPI的苛求面前,完全舍弃主营业务无疑面临巨大风险——何况主营业务,特别是在中国这个汽车业最后的黄金市场,仍然可以赚钱,并为公司提供未来发展的现金流。

正如奔驰Car2Go的例子所引出的怀疑:尽管传统汽车公司开始像互联网公司了,但面对新的消费者和新的出行方式对产品设计、制造及营销方面带来的种种变革,它们到底有多大的勇气和决心自我革命?

走出孤独的张小龙,下一步去向何方?

原文:http://www.geekpark.net/read/view/210594

极客公园

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人人都爱张小龙。作为微信的缔造者,他凭这款产品所创造的商业价值(微信最新的估值是 640 亿美元)丝毫不亚于任何商业领袖,更重要的是,相比后者,张小龙的形象单纯多了。

这名皮肤黝黑、爱打高尔夫球,开着一辆奥迪轿车的中年男子,在多数时候扮演着一名艺术家的角色,他将产品视为自己所创作的艺术品。张小龙也在这 17 年间,持续地进行着自我迭代与升级。

多年前被以 1200 万元人民币卖掉的 Foxmail 与其说是他产品上的成功,不如说是商业上的失败——相比这点金钱,更值得惋惜的是他错过的巨大商业机会。这就是张小龙 1.0,关键词是产品和技术。在微信初期,他将工具上升为平台,将服务用户的简单需求变成引导他们的喜怒哀乐,完成了第二次升级。

现在张小龙正处在自己 2.0 到 3.0 版本的当口,只有完成商业的第三级跳,他才能真正主宰自己和微信的命运。

孤独的艺术家

孤独是所有艺术家的天性和宿命,他们只擅长通过作品来与世界和用户沟通。

1998 年的秋天,周鸿祎经人引荐第一次在广州见到了张小龙。他看到这名在业界已是小有名气的程序员正和十几个人挤在一间小破办公室内,周遭烟雾缭绕。看到周鸿祎之后,张小龙掐灭了手上的烟,面无表情地向他走来。

张小龙所开发的 Foxmail 已经拥有了 200 万用户,是国内用户量最大的共享软件。而当年周鸿祎还仅是方正软件研发中心的一名副主任。之后他偶尔到广州时会和张小龙一起买盗版碟。

周鸿祎告诉《财经》记者,他们被小贩引导着走过七拐八拐的街巷,最后到达一个小黑屋里,屋内全是港台电影影碟。当时已经在广州生活了五年的张小龙,不会讲粤语也不会砍价,一直被当「水鱼」宰。周鸿祎喜欢看动作片,张小龙什么都看,但他总是会忘记他看过什么买过什么,下一次再买碟时你会发现他买的还和上次一样。

当年的张小龙给很多人留下的印象,是一名优秀而落魄的技术人员,外在开朗,内心保守。周鸿祎说,当年 Foxmail 是没有商业模式的,他经常批驳张小龙这一点,说要加广告,要盈利。张小龙说为什么非要这样?只要有用户,有情怀就好了。每一次争论,都是张小龙以长时间的沉默来结束。

「这样的一个人怎么就做出了微信呢?」周鸿祎很疑惑。

Foxmail 如日中天时,腾讯不过 10 万用户,多数人认为邮箱是比社交更大的一块领域。而正当马化腾、张朝阳欣喜地寻找风投向商业进军时,张小龙经常独自一人在深夜看用户来信,他手不离开键盘,一直按着下箭头,看着一封封信从眼前流过,每封信的停留时间不超过 1 秒。在张小龙眼里,Foxmail 已经变成了一个大包袱,每天都有无数的人催促他往前跑,而庞大的知名度和用户量,并没有给他带来任何经济上或社会地位上的好处。

一年后,张小龙选择将 Foxmail 出售给了一家并不知名的互联网公司博大。消息宣布后的夜晚,他写下了一封充满伤感情绪的信,他在信中将 Foxmail 比喻为他精心雕塑的艺术品。

从灵魂到外表,我能数出它每一个细节,每一个典故。在我的心中,它是有灵魂的,因为它的每一段代码,都有我那一刻塑造它时的意识。我突然有了一种想反悔的冲动。

艺术家张小龙一直是孤独的创作者,过去他走得很顺,直到这条宽阔的赛道中出现了障碍物——商业和盈利。傲游、千千静听、超级兔子等无数共享软件都被撞飞了,张小龙则侥幸进入了另一条跑道。当年他刚过 31 岁,但很多人认为他的个人传奇似乎就此终结。

那年夏天,百度在纳斯达克上市,所有人都以为自己眼花了——百度股价从发行价 27 美元飙升至 122.54 美元,当天暴涨 354%,人们看到了资本和商业的力量。张小龙则带着博大给他的收购款,买了辆车,去了一直想去的西藏。

「怎么说呢,这个人,太单纯。」周鸿祎说。这名在商界以狡黠善战而著称的企业家,这样评价比他还大一岁的张小龙。

错过了第一波互联网冲击纳斯达克的高潮后,博大走向没落。2005 年,张小龙和 Foxmail 被打包出售给了腾讯。张小龙在腾讯接手了 QQ 邮箱,并带领着 QQ 邮箱超越网易邮箱成为中国最大的邮件服务商,但这只是他再一次证明了自己的产品能力而已。

在很多时代,有力量的都是商人,多数艺术家都无法摆脱被商人供养而无法自主的命运。Foxmail 给张小龙带来的是巨大的声望,以及颠沛流离的生活。张小龙身边一直围绕着商人,他和商人做朋友,甚至想去微软学习如何进行商业运作,但最终没有在商业上迈出一步。最后,他身边的大多兼具产品与商业天分的朋友都成功了,雷军、周鸿祎、马化腾,甚至当年采访他的记者李学凌。

有人评价,张小龙始终是一个赶潮的人,但他不在潮中。从一名程序员到一名产品经理,他学会了掌控自己的产品,但他始终无法掌控用户。然而慷慨的命运给了他第三次机会,而这次成功来得太大、太快了。

产品之神

「这 TM 是个奇迹!」微信产品总监曾鸣这样评价今日微信的成功。

曾鸣是微信 13 名创始团队成员之一,他说当时包括张小龙在内的所有人都不知道要把微信做成什么样,更何况这些成员中还有一半是毫无经验的实习生。他们最初的目标是又快又稳定——这和张小龙当年做 Foxmail 的思路如出一辙,是一种单纯的做工具的思路。

如果张小龙的产品观只是停留于此,那么他做出来的充其量只是一款还不错的聊天工具。

曾鸣说,外人很难想象,微信从来没有面临过外部竞争,一直都是内部竞争。洪波向《财经》记者回忆起微信初期见张小龙,他始终在思考如何才能学习和超越 QQ,即使大家都认为当时微信最大的对手是米聊。

张小龙的状态并不自信,因为那个阶段他几乎见谁都在重复这个问题。洪波问他,微信和开放什么关系?他回答说,没关系。洪波又问,和内部有冲突怎么办?张小龙说,没想过。

每个人都喜欢张小龙,他看起来单纯而又质朴,专注而又令人难以琢磨。但多数人对他也感到有些不自在,因为有一件事是确定的:他对于产品的偏执超乎想象。2010 年前后,腾讯内部还有另外两个团队也在开发类微信产品,但是他们忌惮会破坏和运营商的利益关系,压力之下这些项目都被暂缓了,张小龙则继续不管不顾地向前推进。

商人或职业经理人往往会选择做那些对自己最有利的事情,艺术家只愿意做他认为对的事情,并且不知道妥协。这种坚持让微信赢得了用户,既而在三位王子的储君争夺战中取得了胜利,而赢得腾讯的内部胜利从很大程度上意味着他已经赢得了移动互联网的胜利。

曾鸣描述起张小龙思考时的样子。深夜,大家在讨论公众号可以做到什么程度,是不是可以做成淘宝一样的网店。张小龙否定了,他说「这个不对」——这是他的口头禅。接着他点燃了一根烟,一分钟两分钟不说话,最后他说,我们应该用标准化的接口把所有的企业、物品都连接到微信里——这就是微信连接一切的由来。

曾鸣说,这个想法太牛了,以至于在场所有人都只愿意用一种略带平淡的口吻来回应说,「不错,这个方向挺好。」

曾鸣说,张小龙没有方法论,也从来没有理性地说出过 1234 来。他提出一个观点,当时你会觉得也许这是对的,但是后来每次都被证实,这真是对的。一位腾讯内部员工说,2012 年张小龙提出微信是一个生活方式的时候,所有人都在笑,觉得他是马云附体了。

QQ 邮箱时期的张小龙作决定之前会先质疑自己,这个事这样做是不是有点问题。「而现在他每作一个决定,所有的气场都在告诉你——没错,就这么做,这东西肯定是成了。」曾鸣说,这种自信不是因为张小龙职位和声望的上升,而是因为他所思考的东西都被证明是正确的。

正如巨大的财富会改变一个人,巨大的用户量也可以让一名产品经理发生变化。Foxmail 时代,用户曾是张小龙最大的包袱,他不敢向他们收费,为了逃避用户,他甚至想跑去美国。而通过微信,从「摇一摇」开始,他开始尝试主宰用户,制定规则,让用户在他的规则之下喜怒哀乐。

他的产品不再只是一个工具,而是一整个社会和一整个世界,一个可以满足用户社交、情感、自我实现等所有需求的地方。

一名多次见过张小龙的记者评论说,他更愿意活在自己能掌控的世界中,而对于无力去掌控的东西没兴趣。现在他可以掌控的东西越多,也就变得愈发的强大和自信。他穿着短裤在办公室里走来走去,确保团队开发出的每一行代码和每一个产品细节都灌注了他的情感。虽然他还是会在私下和饭桌上讲各种黄色段子,但是在某些方面,他正变得更加沉默。

2012 年 7 月,张小龙在腾讯内部做了 8 小时 20 分钟的演讲,178 页的 PPT,他一直滔滔不绝地讲,根本不给人提问和打断他的机会。里面谈到哲学和艺术,谈到性和暴力,对人性的理解,他说做产品就是要让用户爽,就像上帝一样。次年 1 月,微信用户数突破 3 亿。

演讲片段在网上被无数人传阅,并成为移动互联网上跟雷军语录一样重量的产品圣经。至此,张小龙或主动或被动地完成了自己「产品教父」之路。

在微信内部,员工视其为精神领袖。Kink 是微信的设计总监,他告诉《财经》记者,自己所有的理念和评价标准都来自于和张小龙共事的过程。虽然张小龙从不说他的标准是什么,但他会告诉你他对事情的看法和评价,告诉你应该坚持做什么才是对用户有价值的,他们则需要感受到这个标准,并将标准转头传达给他们的员工。

张小龙用一种没有管理方法的方法塑造了一个团队。他们是当今中国互联网最骄傲的一群人,他们价值观相同,拥有一整套张小龙式的思维方式——要简单、低调永远只关注事情本身;他们认为自己从来不在方向上犯错误,只在产品细节上争论;他们自称对其它巨头一无所知,对腾讯也是一只半解;而他们所做的事情毋庸置疑,就是在改变世界——这很容易让人想起几年前百度的鼎盛时期。

所有做产品的人都会说要追求极致,为什么做到的人很少?「因为很多人在极致之前,就妥协了。」微信支付总经理吴毅回答。「那是因为他们没有张小龙啊。」曾鸣笑。

当微信在 2014 年 7 月升级为独立的事业群,从几十人迅速扩充到 1000 人之后,张小龙和微信高层讨论最多的,就是如何打造一个纯血的微信团队。

曾鸣说,张小龙看到一个很蠢的方案时,他会盯着自己说,「Lake,你应该多读点书啊。」当曾鸣看到一个很蠢的方案时,他会问他的下属,「你确定你这个流程会让你很爽吗?你不会把自己搞糊涂吗?」

他们甚至用「优雅」一词来形容正在做的事情。「要优雅地做产品——不复杂、冗余,不会消耗更多的资源。」Kink 说,微信和其他团队不一样,微信是彬彬有礼的、理性的、中立的,功能上和产品特性上是如此,对内对外沟通的态度也是如此。偶尔,他们会希望用另一种隐秘而闷骚的方式赋予整个产品以态度和情绪。

很多人都记得微信 3.0 版本中的开机画面——黑色背景下,红色的霓虹灯拼成了迈克· 杰克逊的剪影。为什么不用传统的黑白色?因为要表达内心激情和热血的状态。Kink 说,这种感觉他们找了很久。直到一天晚上,张小龙扔给他一把奥迪 TT 的钥匙,说,「你们去我车里,我已经找到这个感觉了。」当时车库很暗,车发动起来,音乐响起,视野中是整片的黑暗,只有车的信息窗和车灯所照射之处,发出一片红色的光晕。「你不在跑车里听 MJ,你不在高速上开 120、130 迈,你是感受不到那个状态的。」Kink 说。

「这就是屌丝设计师第一次开跑车的心情。」曾鸣在一旁补充。

连接一切,包括商业

在移动互联网时代,人们对于技术和产品给予了前所未有的重视,而变现渠道也变得无比畅通,在这个高度商业化的世界中,所有人都或主动或被胁迫着向前走。艺术家们可以选择让商人站在背后,替自己掌控产品的命运,也可以选择让自己学会像商人一样思考。

现任微信支付联合产品部副总经理吴毅将张小龙比喻为一名想拍出完美大片的导演,他不是不能接受广告的植入,而是不能容忍生硬的植入,因为生硬会破坏完美。吴毅曾是财付通的助理总经理,他描述,三年前第一次见张小龙,张就在思考如何用支付联系微信和商业。「他并不排斥完美的合作,比如 QQ 音乐、QQ 邮箱、支付。」

微信早期,张小龙负责产品,而如何接入第三方商户,如何拓展线上到线下等商业化规则,由腾讯电商副总裁戴志康负责,就连支付也是交予财付通团队来做。

还记得 Foxmail 的故事吗?张小龙曾经失去了他的艺术品,所以他对于危险异常敏感。2012 年底 Pingwest 创始人骆轶航撰文说,微信商业化过慢的症结在于张与戴之间的内部分歧。

在此之后发生的戴志康离职,微信支付从财付通剥离并入微信,以及今年 7 月微信事业群的独立等一系列事件,你或许可以看作张小龙已有了选择——既然微信商业化不可避免,那就由微信团队自己来主导商业化。这同时也意味着以马化腾、刘炽平为代表的腾讯高层作出了选择,他们选择将商业化交给张小龙,并赋予他全权。

对内把握商业化的控制权。对外,他试图建立一整套新的体系来处理好艺术和商业的关系。举例说,腾讯内部曾有 120 个项目在排队接入微信,而微信的要求是先跑一个半月的数据,然后按照数据筛选。

「微信把开通什么功能,接入什么合作对象这些商业行为纳入到了产品的一部分,而对于大多数人来说,产品是商业的一部分。」一位腾讯内部高层人士告诉记者,你可以将之理解为商业化的价值观,以及艺术家的方法论。

曾鸣说,他们的原则是在不增加微信的复杂度下,让商业化从产品的创新中产生,而不是被商业割裂为利益的集合体。

即便到了今天,微信的商业策略也被认为是相对保守的。一名业内人士向《财经》记者评价,张小龙对待商业化正在经历一个从逃避到试探到主导再到适应的过程,他从不把话说满,做不到的他肯定不说,做得到的他也不见得说。

微信的商业化承载了整个腾讯转型的大理想。从目前来看,它被分为了三大步——增值服务、电商和 O2O。现在它只完成了第一步,而公众号则可以让微信同时实现后两步。曾鸣说,未来微信会开放更多的入口,也会提供所有商家所期待的流量入口。

评论家们曾经以为微信只是导流的工具,而现在微信借助公众号,将腾讯强大的线上营销能力和线下商业进行连接,构建了一个庞大的线上+线下生态,在这个生态中将诞生电商、O2O、健康等各种小生态。微信和 QQ 的差别从某种程度上来说正如实体经济对阵虚拟经济,而后者只是前者的 7%不到。

过去张小龙习惯站在商人后面,而现在他到了第一线,走上了马化腾走过的那条路——同时做产品和商业的引领者。但商业的利益重大而复杂,所以在很长一段时间内,可以想象,张小龙还会选择继续沉默。

张小龙的大学室友曾回忆说,他们总是在夜深人静的时候去宿舍外的池塘钓虾,如今他处理复杂事件的方式还是一样——一个人打高尔夫球,只是排遣烦恼的方式越来越高级。

一位接近张小龙的人士告诉《财经》记者,如今身为腾讯高级副总裁的张小龙每周要去深圳参加例会,他总是以「起不来」为借口不去,马化腾说,「以后让我的秘书叫你起来。」后来张小龙又说「路上太堵,怕赶不上」。于是马化腾每星期都派车来接张小龙,直到他再也找不出任何借口。张小龙就这样有些不情愿地,半推半就地走出了他的世界。

王志安:关于念斌案的再解释

原文:http://weibo.com/p/1001603747426308641401

这是我念斌案宣判后发的两条帖子:

“念斌被判无罪,这个判决只表明,现有的证据不能证明杀人的是念斌。至于到底是不是他干的,除了他自己,谁也不知道。有可能是,也有可能不是。有媒体欢呼什么‘迟到的正义’云云,这是已经事先假定就不是念斌干的。如果从这个意义上理解‘疑罪从无’,那可太低级了。”

“好多人误解重申一下:1、疑罪从无不等于疑罪即无,此宣判只表明现有证据无法证明念斌是凶手;2、疑罪从无本身就是正义,不需要用疑罪即无,所谓“冤案昭雪”来论述;3、即便将来发现新的证据证明念斌就是凶手,今日的宣判也是对的,而且念斌也不该再受到司法追诉。认识到这三点,才算理解了程序正义。”

再解释一下:

第一、法律事实不等于客观事实。事实上,我们人类根本无法完全认知客观事实,尤其是涉及到刑事犯罪,我们只能通过证据和诉讼制度,在法律框架下,寻找或者确认法律事实,而非真的在客观事实层面确认是谁干的。所谓的判决,是指法律事实,而非客观事实。换言之,法院宣判念斌无罪,只是在法律事实上确认了念斌无罪,而非在客观事实上确认了不是念斌投的毒。这就是疑罪从无不等于疑罪即无的含义。

念斌是公安部门走访排查之后确定的最大嫌疑人,许多网友有意无意无视了这个前提。本案的终审宣判意味着,现有的证据到这种程度,不管念斌是不是凶手,在法律层面上,只能认定为不是。“疑罪从无”,“超越合理怀疑”的刑事定案标准,目的是为了保障公民权利,尽可能不受国家机关侵害。但“疑罪从无”只是指法律上无罪,而事实真相如何,我们不得而知。

第二、“疑罪从无”本身就蕴藏着独立的公正价值,这一制度设计的初衷,是一般刑事犯罪对公民权利的侵害,较之于国家司法机器对无辜者的侵害,两害相权取其轻的结果,它体现了对国家权力的限制,从而体现了对人权的保障。念斌案宣判后,很多媒体人欢呼“冤案昭雪”,我认为这种表述是错误的。念斌案不是佘祥林案,也不是赵作海案,那两个案子都是因为死者死而复生,而确凿无疑地属于冤案。但念斌案,仅仅是“证据不足,事实不清”,根据“疑罪从无”原则判定的无罪案件,并不一定就是事实上的“冤案”。如果读过本案的终审判决书就知道,念斌案大量的证据存疑,很多是当年公安机关在侦查取证过程中存在瑕疵,有的是技术问题,有的是程序问题,导致这些证据的证明力不足,最终没有被法院采信。如果当初这些证据在取证过程中严格合规合法,本案的结论并不一定就是如此。

破破的桥说本案是“非法证据排除”问题,因为此前念斌的供述都是刑讯逼供的产物,而非“疑罪从无”。这个说法不对。非法证据排除,只是审判过程中的一个环节。念斌被列为犯罪嫌疑人,并未只有口供,物证也一大堆。法庭不可能仅仅根据“非法证据排除”就来定案,还是要根据检方提供的证据,究竟能否“超于合理怀疑”的标准来判决。

破破的桥还提供了另外一些“证据”,比如警方威胁念斌的妻子,还有念斌本人没有作案时间、和律师的之间的有罪供述有警察在场等等,自我看来,这些证据也并非拥有不证自明的权利,同样需要法庭的质证方能现实其证明力。不能凭借这些没有经过质证的单方“证据”,就简单认定警方在罗织证据有意“陷害”念斌。

第三条不太好理解,刑诉法上叫“禁止双重危险”。在刑诉法修改的过程中,我们参与修法的专家,权衡再三,这一条都没敢提出来,因为感觉太超越中国的国情了。从微博上的骂声上看,也差不多的确如此。但那些法学大家们都知道,这是争取的目标,没有这一条,刑诉法距离保障人权的目标就还有相当的距离。

禁止双重危险,“即指当一件事情已经完全地和公平地经过了诉讼,其决定应当是对该问题永久性的解决。”此亦提示我们,刑事审判的正义,体现在程序的正当和公平,而非结果。只要一个人经过了正当公平的审判,这个结果就该被尊重。而国家没有权利无休止地将个人置于追诉的危险之下。

所以,对于念斌案而言,有了今日之判决,即便明日就发现新证据,念斌也不该再受到追诉了。当然这只是我们的理想,还不是中国的司法现实。中国的所谓错案追究制度本身很有问题,它将结果正义至于程序正义之上。用结果来评判法官的审判行为对错,将导致无人敢从事司法审判。同时也是违背“禁止双重危险”的人权保障原则。

最后,我想说说媒体该如何报道念斌案。不出意外,大量的报道都是从事实层面,采用杨乃武和小白菜的模式报道。我只能说,这种报道模式很业余。看过前面三点解释的,应该能部分理解我的观点了。需要补充的是,事实层面的叙述风险很高,因为法律并没有认定念斌在客观事实层面不是凶手,如果你言之凿凿确认这一点,万一将来有了新证据,你今日的报道如何回望?我一直认为,好的报道,即便将来事实大反转,都不影响别人对你报道的评价。新闻尽管是历史的草稿,但也要经得起时间的检验。其次,媒体从法律层面上关注念斌案,才可能将本案的个案价值上升到整个司法制度以及人权保障层面的分析和反思,这比念斌个人到底是不是凶手,要重要的多。例如,本案中公安机关在取证中存在大量的不规范之处,为什么会这样?如何避免?这一判决对公安机关未来在侦查中有什么影响?再比如,本案中明显存在一些非法证据,但判决书中并没有采用证据排除,而采取了不采信的司法逻辑,为什么会这样?

需要补充的是,防止刑讯逼供,国外并非通过非法证据排除来保障犯罪嫌疑人的权利,而是通过不得自证其罪这一条款保护的。我们国家新的刑诉法虽然有类似的规定,但同时留下了如实供述义务的条款。这两者是相互矛盾的。更重要的是,不得自证其罪的落实,需要讯问时律师在场,但我们的刑诉法在修订时并没有加入这一条款。而是规定如果取证不合法,口供可以被排除的条款来试图杜绝刑讯逼供。但念斌案发生在新的刑诉法之前,警方也还没有如此明确的约束。有多条证据证明念斌遭受了刑讯逼供。但法庭在判决过程中,却并没有认定,更不用说排除了。

如果我是采访本案的记者,我会问主审法官,为什么不排除非法证据,而是选择了不采信的审判逻辑。是怕认定非法证据后办案人员面临追诉?还是有来自于其他方面的压力?我们的审判什么时候可以将证据审和实体审分开?

还比如,本案的终审判决同时宣判念斌的民事责任也无需承担了,这等于用刑事审判的标准,覆盖了民事审判。这种刑事优于民事的原则,事实上导致了刑事审判主导民事审判的现实,如果严格实施疑罪从无的原则,有可能导致某些受害人家庭,无法通过民事审判赢得另一种正义的可能。随着刑诉法逐渐向人权保障的方向行进,这一制度有必要重新检视。

在我看来,对这些问题的探讨,都远远超越在事实层面上冤案昭雪模式的价值,但是,它们不够吸引人,无法迎合微博上那些只会骂娘的人。

现实的情况是,中国的媒体人,大多数还分不清法律事实和客观事实,更不用说如何在个案基础上,分析法律的内在价值了。他们认为死磕就是法治,反对政府就是正义。他们的思维还停留在杨乃武的时代,但却自认为在将中国带往法治之国。

这真是个笑话。